Overconfident people often fail to realize their limitations, just like standing in front of a rearview mirror, they always see a distorted self-image. psychological research has found that 95% of people believe their driving skills are above average, a common cognitive bias known as the "Dunning Kruger effect". Why do we overestimate ourselves?
1. The self-protection mechanism of the brain
The amygdala automatically filters negative feedback, which is a survival instinct left by evolution. Research has found that people remember 40% less criticism than praise, similar to selective amnesia.
2. The dilemma of the information cocoon
Social media algorithms constantly reinforce our existing views, making people mistakenly believe that the whole world agrees with them. The Harvard experiment shows that people are only exposed to an average of 3% of opposing viewpoints.
3. The illusion of success attribution
attributes success to ability and failure to the environment. This attribution bias makes people wear filters and never see their true selves clearly.
2. The Three Major Hazards of Overconfidence
1. Impaired Interpersonal relationships
People who always believe they are right often use words such as "absolute" and "affirmative" when speaking. A survey shows that social satisfaction among this group of people is 62% lower than that of the general population.
2. Risk of Decision Making Errors
Investors who are overconfident have a 2.3 times higher probability of losing money than those who are cautious. The phenomenon of "leeks" in the stock market is largely due to this.
3. Decreased learning ability
People who believe they know everything will have their brains shut down information receiving channels. Neuroscience research has confirmed that humble individuals have more active learning regions in their brains.
3. Secret to Maintaining Moderate Confidence
1. Regularly Perform Cognitive Calibration
List 3 cases of judgment errors every month to correct cognitive biases like updating a mobile phone system.
2. Proactively seeking opposing opinions
Deliberately focusing on content creators with different positions is like vaccinating the mind.
3. Establish a feedback mechanism
Invite 5 trusted individuals to provide you with honest evaluations on a regular basis and form a personal "board of directors".
4. Characteristics of a truly confident person
1. Dare to say "I don't know"
Socratic wisdom, acknowledging cognitive boundaries to sustain growth.
2. Willing to be proven wrong
sees correction as a cognitive upgrade, like a programmer discovering a system vulnerability.
3. Skilled at changing perspectives
Often asks oneself, "What would I think if I were the other person?" This kind of thinking training can break the self centeredness.
Next time when you want to say "absolutely", try changing it to "maybe I misunderstood". True wise people understand that confidence is like tea, and being 70% full is the best state. Maintaining reverence for the unknown is necessary to go further on the path of cognitive upgrading.
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